click to show more information

click to hide/show information About this Show

Closing Bell

News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day. New. (CC) (Stereo)

NETWORK

DURATION
01:00:00

RATING

SCANNED IN
San Francisco, CA, USA

SOURCE
Comcast Cable

TUNER
Virtual Ch. 58 (CNBC)

VIDEO CODEC
mpeg2video

AUDIO CODEC
ac3

PIXEL WIDTH
528

PIXEL HEIGHT
480

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Us 17, S&p 6, Charlie 4, Mitch Mcconnell 4, Ho 4, Kayla 3, Tim Geithner 3, Brad 2, Jack Liu 2, Ben 2, Geico 2, Eamon Javers 2, Jack Lew 2, Carl 2, Mcconnell 2, Obama 2, U.s. 2, Dubai 2, Singapore 2, Washington 2,
Borrow a DVD
of this show
  CNBC    Closing Bell    News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide  
   through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day....  

    November 30, 2012
    3:00 - 4:00pm EST  

3:00pm
there but doesn't let his face or name be shown, will only say he's from kansas city. he's going to give away $100,000 in total. people hugging him. he got a police escort to and from the airport. won't say his name or show his face, but he's there making people's day. maybe making their holiday season. we say three cheers for him. thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. have great weekend. "closing bell" is next. happy friday, everybody. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm bill griffeth here at the new york stock exchanges. maria will be along momentarily. it is the final trading hour of the month. so far, it doesn't look like it will be a positive month thanks in large part to volatility from the fiscal cliff mess. the dow is down right now for the month. it's pretty close, though. the s&p and the nasdaq are on track for winning months. here's how we stand now. a bit of volatility.
3:01pm
not as much as we've seen lately. i will point out there's a rebalancing of a major international index occurring on the close today, so we're going to get a bunch of volume, maybe more volatility. we'll watch that through the final hour. right now the dow is down 24 points at 12,997. we're back below 13,000 at this hour. the nasdaq, as we said, positive for the month, is down 8.5 points right now. still above 3,000 at 3,003 and change. the s&p 500 is down three points. a little selling here in the beginning of the last hour, now at 1412. as we head into the last month of the year and closer to that fiscal cliff, how should you be positioning yourself right now? let's find out in our "closing bell" exchange today. mark, are you trying to look past this or trying to play the volatility right now that we're experiencing these days? >> no, for our clients, when we're managing money for our
3:02pm
clients, we're working on a five-year time horizon. we are looking past it, but at the same point in time, we're saying embrace volatility. any volatility we see over the course of the next 30 days regarding the fiscal cliff, use these as potential buying opportunities. the way we see it right now is over the course of those next five years, we do think that if you're in some good, high-quality stocks, you should be able to provide high, single-digit returns. >> rick, today we've not seen the kind of volatility we've had lately. we still have public posturing politically from speaker boehner and the president. do you make anything of that? is the market becoming immune to the public outcry or what? >> you know, i don't know about the public outcry issue, but i can tell you this. it doesn't surprise me that on a friday the stock market would pay less attention to the tape bombs than other days because of the weekend and the issues of
3:03pm
trading and any surprises that come up. i would doubt if you're going to even see much movement in the last hour. treasuries, on the other hand -- well, actually, they're very similar. but where you start to see something different is as our guest was talking about. move outside of treasuries. if you look at barclays, whether it's their high-yield index or investment index, they're not at their best levels, but they've been big movers. the biggest issue is the taxes surrounding munis. that was started in '07. all-time new highs today. even if you look at the lipper or barclay indices, it reflects the same thing. in a way, it's sad. in a way, it isn't. it underscores all of these tax implications that are moving trades are counterproductive to the democratic theme because they are circumventing the positives that are supposed to be through tax structure. i guess it really argues for
3:04pm
reform. if all the money you're supposed to get from these companies is getting pulled into today's tax rates. >> what about that market? there are those who say get into the high yield, go to the munis since taxes are going to go higher. are they expensive now? has that become a crowded trade? is it too late to get into them? >> you know, the way we're looking at it right now is obviously capital is going to chase yield. when you can't get any yield in the form of treasuries, cds, you know, there's not a ton of yield in munis right now p. investment grade bonds don't look as attractive. >> so you're not going to buy them. where are you going to go to find yield where you can also feel like you're finding value at the same time? >> yeah, we're definitely looking at investing in high-dividend paying stocks. the assets that we're looking at right now are really -- those stocks that are yielding between 4% and 5%.
3:05pm
we're looking for stocks that are growing at a high dividend growth rate as well. >> let me bring in our friend gordon, one of the traders on the floor of the new york stock exchange. explain to us the rebalancie ii that's going to occur at the end of trade and the impact that could have. also, do you think that's why we're not seeing much volatility today as everybody gets ready for what's happening on the close today? >> i think it's a couple of things, bill. i think that's part of it, certainly. we've had muted volume, muted volatility going into the end of the day. we're already seeing the imbalances are sizing up to be sizable. so it's going to be a big event, big trading event, big liquidity event down here on the floor on the close. but really, let's face t everybody is still looking at the fiscal cliff issue. every time a politician -- they're like actors. every press conference is like a theater. i can tell you this, though.
3:06pm
the stocks that have been declaring special dividends have been outperforming the standard & poors in that time period. exercising options, looking to sell out their positions. right now there almost seems to be immobilization just because people have a lot of uncertainty. >> so i don't want to make too fine a point, but you expect some volatility on the close because of this rebalancing, yes? >> yeah, no question about it, bill. we're definitely going to be seeing a lot of paper coming in here. i'm dating myself when i say paper. there's going to be a lot of activity here. we're going to see some moves. we don't know where they're going to come from. you know, everybody's going to be coming into the house as we get to the close. >> hey, rick, what do you make of the negotiations right now? i mean, are you hopeful we get something before the end of the year? what are you guys on the floor expecting to happen right now? do we find ourselves going into the first quarter of next year
3:07pm
but without a deal? >> you know what, people on the floor look at it this way. they believe what's going on is purely a game by both sides and that the good of the country isn't being presented properly. they almost all agree that the meat of any reform, obviously, isn't going to happen between now and december 31st unless congress goes to hawaii with the president. but they do think that refrorm -- reform is going to be a bigger issue than the tax issue. without the reform, any kind of short-gap measure pushes reform into the very distant future because all the incentives then disappear. >> right. mark, we know the corporate profitability growth has been slowing in this country. does that growth rate continue to slow or even get much slower if we don't get a deal any time soon? does that affect profitability, do you think? >> absolutely. i mean, right now i feel like a resolution on this whole fiscal cliff is being priced in by
3:08pm
december 21st. if we don't have a resolution, even if we just have, let's say, a one-year patch, companies are not going to put their trillions of dollars sitting on the sideline to work. so we do need something. we need a resolution. it has to be a long-term resolution so that everyone is comfortable really making those sizable investments that are going to help us spur economic growth. >> and what sectors are going to lead us higher, do you think? who is immune to the kind of volatility we're going to see or the kind of effects the fiscal cliff could have on the economy here, mark? >> honestly, we're essentially sector agnostic with we talk about managing money on a five-year duration for our clients. when you look at some of the master limited partnerships that are out there, the kinder morgans, specter energy looks like a good play. we're looking at the 4% to 5% yielders, companies that have a good track record of increasing
3:09pm
those yields. we're sticking more with consumer staples. we're definitely tilted towards that defensive end. but we're going to stay there. as long as growth is slow, that's where we feel we can get the best risk adjusted returns for our clients. >> all right. thanks for joining us. mark, good to see you. rick, have a good weekend. gordon, have a good time at the beacon tonight. we're less than an hour from the trade month. kayla rounds up november's big winners and losers. >> hey, bill. the indices may have danced along the flat line for the entire month, but there were clear winners and losers on either side of the tape. to the downside, several companies falling markedly. exelon down 17%. cliff's natural down 21%. pitney bowes down 22%. the biggest laggard is the born-again retailer jcpenney. down 26.5%. some stocks arguably had a
3:10pm
better month. computer sciences up around 25%. trip adviser, spun off of expedia, running 27% in november alone. titanium metals holding down commodities. sharp rise there, up 41%. the month's winner is abercrombie & fitch. investor can hopefully look past the ceos bizarre habits because they have some returns. up 51%. not bad for one month. >> you can excuse the habits. thanks, kayla. see you later. we're heading toward the close. 50 minutes left in the trading session with the dow down 26 points. as we said, though, you're going to see a lot of buying and selling on the close. it's called rebalancing of a particular international index. we'll see some volatility at the close here. when we come back, he practically laughed in tim
3:11pm
geithner's face, we're told. that was the reaction from senate republican leader mitch mcconnell. what would it mean to you if the president got his way despite that reaction? that's no laughing matter. we'll have details on that and both sides of that contentious issue coming up. and then a lot of theories about who would replace treasury secretary geithner. we'll hear from someone who says the best candidate to succeed him just met with president obama yesterday. trust us when we tell you it's not a name you've heard before for this job. meanwhile, the parade of companies offering special dividends ahead of the cliff keeps getting bigger. why this boom for shareholders may turn into a bust for others. we'll explain when we continue on "the closing bell" for this friday. [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- ♪ you can stay in and like something... ♪ [ car alarm deactivates ] ♪
3:12pm
...or you can get out there with your family and actually like something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection. [ female announcer ] today, it's not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, and the home office as well. because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are, you're the commander-in-chief of your own life. ♪ or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us.
3:13pm
introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use. it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing.
3:14pm
welcome back. >> welcome back. >> yesterday the white house fiscal cliff proposal made top senate republican mitch mcconnell laugh, we are told. >> today the rhetoric continued. eamon javers breaks down all the hardball offers and the reactions in washington. over to you, eamon. >> hi, guys. we got a lot going on here in washington this week. a lot of horse trading. we dealt with a lot of the spee
3:15pm
speech. the white house is saying they'd like to see $1.6 trillion in tax increases up front here. they'd like to continue the payroll tax credit. they want a permanent increase in the debt limit and a one-year extension of expanded jobless benefits. they want at least $50 billion in spending as a stimulus to the economy. that was the white house ask that prompted that laugh from mitch mcconnell when tim geithner gave it to him yesterday. today in an interview with "the wall street journal," mcconnell floated his own balloon of what he'd like to see. here are some of the elements. mcconnell saying they want changes to entitlement eligibility. they would agree to more tax revenue, yes, but not higher rates. only if they get the revenue through changing deductions and other things like that. they say the white house is almost comical here.
3:16pm
the key is means testing of these entitlement programs and age extensions for retirement, particularly, obviously, with social security and medicare. that's the key to the deal, guys. now we end the week sort of nowhere. they'll be back at it again next week. >> all right. thanks so much, eamon javers. meanwhile, the marriott ceo was one of the ceos in the room with president obama this week in the fiscal cliff meetings. many of the executives saying that the white house sounded resounding resoundingly reasonable when describing plans to address the debt and deficit. >> so was this proposal the white house made yesterday with more spending and very few spending cuts, was that what mr. sorenson was expecting out of the gate? he joins us on the telephone with his thoughts. good to have you with us. >> glad to be with you. >> when you were with the other ceos at the white house, does it jive with what we're hearing about that made mitch mcconnell laugh yesterday? are those two plans one in the
3:17pm
same? >> well, i'm hopeful that what's happening in the media is posturing by both parties and doesn't reflect where either party thinks a deal will end up. i think what the president talked with us about on wednesday afternoon was much more a sense of where things ought to end up, and that was, i think, somewhat different than it sounds like what was proposed. >> so you didn't hear about the tax increase for the wealthiest, the spending increases that made mitch mcconnell laugh. those specifics you didn't get into with the president on wednesday, is that what you're saying? >> we certainly talked with the president and heard from the the president about the expectation that there needs to be revenue increases. he was quite blunt in saying that he thought in order to get the revenue increases, it had to include some increase in the marginal rates for the highest earners. that was the same sort of
3:18pm
specifically, he said it would be useful if you all could be helpful in saying that could or needs to be a piece of the solution. but i think he was also saying that he had been consistent on the campaign in saying that there would be $2 of spending cuts for each dollar of revenue increases. he wasn't backing away from that. >> during the campaign, he said he initially was talking about $800 billion in revenue. now the president, of course, his proposal is $1.6 trillion. he's talking about double the amount of revenue. did he discuss $1.6 trillion in that meeting? >> he talked about 1.2 to 1.5. you know, hopefully there's a deal here in the trillion to trillion and a quarter range. i think for it to be balanced, and it's essential it is balanced, we have to get the republicans on board. also, the reality of the fiscal issues. i think there needs to be as much in spending, whether it's
3:19pm
entitlement or other spending. >> what did he say about spending? did he talk about putting the knife to medicare and some of these entitlements, or was it all defense or what? where do the cuts come from in spending? >> it was not terribly specific on spending, but i think what he said certainly would suggest that it comprehends entitlement reform. just under categories of spend. as everybody's known it, it's hard to find the dollars without going after entitlements. i think there's a sense in the white house in the democratic party, it wouldn't be surprising, that it's really important both party's fingerprints are on entitlement reform so the other doesn't have the ability to take cheap shots and say we had nothing to do with that. i'm hopeful, but again i'm not a politician, and i'm not in these rooms. i'm hopeful we've got a dance playing out in public and in private we have folks
3:20pm
negotiatinegotiate ing something much more balanced. >> you wrote in "the huffington post" that politics aside, you felt there could be a resolution on all this. but can we get past the politics right now, do you think? >> well, i think that requires these folks to act like adults and to be in a room together. i really don't think it's that hard. i put it in the op ed piece. most of this stuff has been costed out. in many respects they probably have language already drafted. we have lots of bills. you go back to negotiations from december of '11 or to simpson/bowles, the thing i push most is don't do too little in december. don't let us go through 2013 with this hanging over our head again. >> right. >> arne, thanks so much. >> you get. have a good weekend. >> it sounds like during that meeting at the white house that the president was talking more about what the compromise was
3:21pm
going to look like rather than the opening salvo. >> which is good news. maybe that's why we didn't see a bad reaction yesterday. although, now we're negative. let's get reaction from what you just heard. seth says it's the way to go. cn cnbc contributor sara fagan says it doesn't address the problems. good to have you both with us. thanks for joining us. seth, president obama's plan is advocating tax increases but almost no net spending cuts. how do you resolve this crisis without cutting spending significantly? >> well, i don't think that's true at all. there's substantial spending cuts. i mean, first of all, we've already cut spending by $1.5 trillion as part of the first part of this deficit reduction framework. also in his offer is another $400 billion in cuts, targeted cuts to health care programs. i really think that we shouldn't, like you said, take the knife to fundamental
3:22pm
programs like medicare and social security. the president's plan is the plan he presented to the american people and won the election on. certainly, the plans they would cut or fundamentally restructure medicare, those proposals -- >> i don't think that's what we're talking about, seth. >> does that do anything to the debt? >> that's a great question, maria. that's the biggest challenge with this proposal that the president put out. he's actually talking about new spending. additional payroll benefits, additional unemployment benefits. his very proposal underscores the need for tax reform so we don't keep doing these stopgap measures, which cause uncertainty to our businesses. you know, i think the proposal was not serious. i look back to 2001, 2003 when the bush tax cuts were first enacted. this is akin to president bush proposing we have a top rate of 17% or 18%.
3:23pm
>> but sara, let's face it, it's the beginning of the process. not the end of the process. what would you expect the president to come up. he's not going to go that close to what he's expecting to get in the end. he's going to start from another place. so how does the republican party respond to that? what's the opening salvo for the gop right now? >> i think the speaker has put it out there, bill. he's already said we would agree to $800 billion in new revenue, and we can talk about how to get there. >> and no rate a increases and a closing of loopholes and capping of deductions. so i mean, is that what we're talking about now? we've got one side against the other right now. why don't we let these guys get together in a room and solve the problem? find some place in the middle here. >> i have an issue with these opening salvos, bill. we're 31 days away, okay. this whole agreement was put
3:24pm
into place 13 months ago. they should have started working on this 13 months ago. >> well, they should have. >> to say here's my opening salvo -- >> so where is the republican s s salvo? they don't even have one. >> this is about presidential leadership. he's the man with the bully pulpit. he has the opportunity to turn whatever package gets done into the obama growth plan or the obama deficit reduction plan and own it and embrace it, and he's not doing that. it is very typical of his leadership. >> the president feels that's why he was re-elected, because this is exactly what he's been running on, this program that he's now proposing here. >> as maria pointed out earlier, he was at $800 billion in revenue. we could with get to a deal quickly. >> why are we so focused on taxes and revenue? let's focus on spending cuts. what's your take on where to cut? seth, moments ago you said, you
3:25pm
know, you can't put a knife to some of these entitlement programs. so what are we trying to do here? are we trying to get our arms around the debt and deficits? are we trying to create jobs? what's the goal of this whole charade? >> both. i wouldn't call it a charade. in the near-term, we're trying to keep this recovery going. that's why the payroll tax holiday extension is so needed and the small amount of new investments and unemployment insurance in the president's offer. that has to be balanced, of course, in the long-term with real spending cuts. >> and where are those? >> he's got another $400 billion, plus the interest savings. it's a balanced approach. if you add it up, it stabilizes the debt over the next decade. if we did that, that would be a tremendous step forward. >> where would those $400 billion in spending cuts come from? >> they come from public health care programs, but not through cuts to beneficiaries. they're real cuts. i have to say, at this point the president is the only one who's actually put spending cuts on the table.
3:26pm
where's the republican offer? >> he's not put his medicaid cuts on the table. he put a number on the table. what i think one of the challenges -- you'll expect that to come from the hospitals, the nursing home groups. he expects that money to come out of corporate america, again, which is another tax, so to speak, on business certainty. >> all right. we got to go, folks. at least we don't have to solve the problem. we have it left in somebody else's hands, unfortunately, right now. thank you both for joining us today. heading toward the close. the market holding steady right now. there's a rebalancing coming on the close today of a major in x index. we're expecting volatility. >> we should see some wild swings ahead. meanwhile, dollar general set to join the s&p 500 after the close of trading. that means you likely will own it as well if you own any etf linked to that index. is that good for your bottom
3:27pm
line? we'll check it out. also, have you seen this video yet? this could be one of the powerball winners finding out that he's a multimillionaire. i mean, he certainly seems happy. what exactly is the price of happiness? we've got the answer coming up. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro.
3:28pm
i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on grounipping at fedex office. [ engine revs ] ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] the mercedes-benz winter event is back,
3:29pm
with the perfect vehicle that's just right for you, no matter which list you're on. [ santa ] ho, ho, ho, ho! [ male announcer ] lease a 2013 c250 for $349 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer.
3:30pm
welcome back. one of the hottest trades of the year could be getting even hotter. dollar general set to join the s&p 500 at close of trading tonight. if you own a fund that tracks the broader market, you'll likely have a stake in that company. guys, good to see you. zach, what does dollar general's inclusion in the s&p mean for the stock? >> well, it certainly means it's been validated by s&p, which i guess is about as good as their judgment is. you know, it's good for liquidity. with a large-cap name like dollar general trading 3, 4 million shares at float, that doesn't matter as much. my take on this name is we all have a limited choice about how many stocks we're going to own
3:31pm
individually in a portfolio separate from etfs. you have to decide where you're going to make those choices. i have nothing overly against dollar general. it may do quite well. it may go up 10%. i could probably come up with a couple hundred names i think are going to do a whole lot better, granted with a little more risk. i think unless you really feel the economy is going to deteriorate significantly next year and the low-end consumer is going to have to go ever more into this space, i'm not as excite the. >> so you don't like the fundamental story, necessarily. let's talk technicals. >> dollar general still looks quite bullish to me. it's started to deteriorate a little bit over the last four months. really, no real substantial sign of deterioration. i think it can move to new highs. initially, you'll see the stock has had a good bullish uptrends. you held where you needed to in terms of support. the deterioration has really been minimal, and the stock is still within 10% of its all-time
3:32pm
highs. >> that's where i'd say 10, 15% is a very healthy move for a stock. if off suite of other stocks when you could imagine a 20, 30% break, think of all the cloud names. >> i don't disagree with you, but there are also a couple things to mention here. the chart formation since july is what a lot of technicians call a corrective pattern. we actually broke beneath august lows. since we've regained them. the stock has had a decent move up. if we get over $52, which i think can happen in the next few months, the stock has a quick ride through the upper 50s. i think that's going to happen between now and early next spring. >> okay. we'll keep watching. thank you, gentlemen. bill, over to you. >> 30 minutes left before the closing bell. the dow down about 13 points. not everybody worried about looming fiscal cliff. in fact, it makes some people happy.
3:33pm
[ laughter ] why is this toddler watching us on "closing bell"? we're grateful for every single one of our viewers, but why does the fiscal cliff make him so happy? and why are we asking why? more on this important piece of video coming up. plus, there's been a lot of speculation about who could become the new treasury secretary, and our next guest says the best person to succeed tim geithner just had a very private meeting with the president yesterday. who could that be, you wonder? stick around to find out. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm so into it, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 hours can go by before i realize tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that i haven't even looked away from my screen. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that kind of focus... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that's what i have when i trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...helps me keep an eye on what's really important to me.
3:34pm
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 it's packed with tools that help me work my strategies, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 spot patterns and find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then, when i'm ready... act decisively. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with the exact same tools, the exact same way. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the reality is, with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account with a $50,000 deposit, and get 6 months commission-free trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-979-9006 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and a trading specialist tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 will help you get started today.
3:35pm
3:36pm
as if the list of candidates to succeed tim geithner as treasury secretary wasn't getting long enough, now you have mitt romney's name thrown into the ring. >> ben white joins us now to talk more about that. ben, you admit it's unlikely,
3:37pm
but you think this would work. talk to us about it. >> it's a little unlikely. good to be with you. thank you. you look at the two things, the biggest knocks on the obama administration in the first term were they didn't have a businessman with any business experience in any senior role, and they had terrible relations with republicans on capitol hill. no businessman, no bipartisanship. romney gives you both of those. he's a guy that gets along with republicans. he could make a deal on entitlements, tax reform. and he gets you a lot of business experience. i first said it as a joke, then i thought it makes sense. a lot of people agreed with that. >> certainly the president wants to reach across the aisle, you know, once in a while and have republicans do that. usually a businessman goes to commerce secretary. >> often, but it's a back water agency. if you have someone with a really powerful role -- and in this next term, it's going to be the big entitlement reform deal and tax reform deal.
3:38pm
he's going to need a dialogue where people have somebody, a trusted partner they can deal with. mitt romney gives you a lot of that. he has great experience in private equity doing deals. he needs to do a big deal here. >> let's assume it's not going to be mitt romney. let's decide who it's going to be. you first. >> for a while, ihoug it was going to be larry fink. my sources it will tell me it w him. my sources say it's probably going to be jack liu. what do you think about jack liu, the former chief of staff? >> that's my pick. >> that was your pick all along. what does that do in terms of the perception of the treasury? do you think he will be an individual who will be a positive lee y positive liaison for business and take away this antagonistic perception? >> that's the big question. jack lew is obviously the favorite. he probably does wind up getting it. he's very smart, good technocrat, good relationships on the hill.
3:39pm
he would be fine. >> he's perfect for a second term, right? >> he's okay for a second term. i don't think he's perfect. i don't think he's a guy that changes the game. a dynamic change is what you need in the second term. you need somebody who will have the business community come in and understand what you're talk about. they don't have that now. commerce doesn't give you any. jack lew is probably right. i think he'll do a fine job. in terms of having a different second term, a different relationship with republicans, he's not the guy who's going to give that to you. >>, no he's not the guy. that's what i think too. >> one thing in his favor is his relationship with congress. you need to negotiate with them. they're going that on the fiscal cliff right now. what are you hearing? are we making progress or not? >> i think we're definitely making progress. i think your previous guest who talked about the dance of this process were right. i think maria is right it's a little too late in the game for first salvos, but that's what these are. they go to the 11th hour. they will this time. there is a possibility for a deal around $1 trillion in increased revenues, $1 trillion
3:40pm
in spending cuts. how you get the revenue remains to be seen. there will be marginal rate increases. we're going to get a deal. we might get a house vote where it fails and the stock market tank, but they'll get a deal before christmas and we'll be fine. >> by the end of the year. ben, thanks so much. good to talk with you. see you soon. >> an announcement by the supreme court of the united states moving one stock. kayla has this market flash. >> bill, the supreme court announcing just moments ago that it will evaluate whether you can patent specific human genes. why is that moving myriad genetics? it's down about 4.5%. it had a single circuit breaker for the stock. it's now trading -- it was down 6%. here's the thing. myriad had patented a human gene that tells whether a woman is many more susceptible to types of cancer. that supreme court ruling could be a big challenge to myriad. that's why that stock is down right now. guys, back to you. >> thanks, kayla. >> thanks so much. we're in the final stretch for the week. just about 20 minutes before the
3:41pm
closing bell sounds for the day. a market that's negative. down about seven points on the industrial average. >> companies have announced more than $21 billion in special dividend payouts ahead of the fiscal cliff and a likely increase in taxes for those payouts. when we come back, we're going to look at whether that could actually hurt stocks once though payouts are completed. then, hewlett-packard blaming much of the financial problems at the company on the acquisition of autonomy, saying autonomy duped them. former hp ceo carly fiorina is with us. she's not commented yet on this major corporate story. she will coming up. stay with us on that.
3:42pm
i put away money. i was 21, so i said, "hmm, i want to retire at 55." and before you know it, i'm 58 years old. time went by very fast. it goes by too, too fast. ♪ but i would do it again in a heartbeat. [ laughs ] ♪ ♪
3:43pm
you can stay in and like something... or you can get out there and actually like something. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. sfx- "sounds of african drum and flute" look who's back. again? it's embarrassing it's embarrassing! we can see you carl. we can totally see you. come on you're better than this...all that prowling around. yeah, you're the king of the jungle. have you thought about going vegan carl? hahaha!! you know folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. how happy are they jimmy? happier than antelope with night-vision goggles. nice! get happy. get geico.
3:44pm
fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. welcome back. bill, a slew of companies continuing to announce special dividend so far ahead of the fiscal cliff, making these moves in anticipation of higher taxes. it adds up to more than $21 billion in payouts. >> will these types of actions accelerate it if a deal isn't reached any time soon? plus, is there a downside for investors? steve, what do you think? everybody is rushing to declare these special dividends.
3:45pm
there are those investors who would find them attractive right now for tax reasons. are they good in the scheme of things? >> i think they're good because the companies that have announced these special dividends have gone up a lot. so investors have been getting a lot of research on the sell side over the last two weeks looking for those new ideas. a lot have already happened. there are some really significant opportunities out there in certain names. we own dish network, for example. it's about a $16 billion market cap company. three of the last five years they've paid a december special dividend. the owner of the company, the founder, owns 55%. he can save $500 million in taxes on the dividend alone if they were to announce a $5 billion special dividend in the next few weeks. >> so you as an investor, you want that special dividend now. you don't think it takes away anything from 2013? >> not at all. i've been talking about these
3:46pm
great balance sheets. they have not gotten any benefit from these balance sheets. i think when the special dividends are paid, which investors get, i don't think the stocks go down. it's a net benefit. >> brad, what do you think? >> i love to be the conservative critic guy and say no way they should be adding leverage -- >> go ahead, please. >> but honestly, you can't blame them with where rates are right now. you look at some of the levels that even, you know, we have aggressive issuance. they're still barely paying -- you see costco dealing with inside of 2%. companies are adding leverage, but they're not adding enough to really make a difference for credit investors. they still want to buy this debt. >> bob, what do you make of what's going on on the floor today? are these companies outperforming right now? >> the short term, yes. i'll tell you what the problem is. it's been very difficult to actually pick the companies and
3:47pm
get them right. it's only really been a small handful, particularly the ones that have moved from january to december. walmart is the big one. there haven't been an awful lot of others. here's the good news. there's a drop date. people say it's about december 17th. if we get nothing happening by december 17th, there's going to be a flood of companies that are either going to do special dividends or move the dividend of forward from january into december. you're not going to have to pick it. you're just going to see it move forward here. i think that's the good news. >> we're running the list of companies. looks like a k-tell commercial. >> in the universe of stocks, it's still not an enormous number. >> what's the downside, steve? here we are on the edge of this fiscal cliff. a lot of people say if we go over, we're going to see dividend taxes go to 44% next year. do i really want a special dividend now if in a few weeks or in a month it's going to be an issue for me because i've got a 44% tax bill?
3:48pm
>> i think you buy dividend stocks here. based on everything i'm reading, it seems like the white house, the democrats are willing to give up the high-dividend tax rate to get something. it seems like that's the first thing they're going to be flexible on. maybe the rate goes 20 to 25%. i don't think you see high 40s. >> that's capital gains. 15% is dividends, right? >> dividends. >> where does that go? >> i think the dividend tax rate, some people will believe it will go up significantly. i think the white house, at least on dividend gains, is going to be very flexible. i don't think you see the rate higher than 25%. >> if that happens, i think you'll probably not see a flood of companies move those dividends forward. if it's 43%, you'll see a flood going from january to december. if it's 20%, i don't think so. >> we just are showing you the markets move. ing higher here. we were talking about the bias to the upside toward the close. >> how worse headlines can you get than john boehner, the speaker of the house, saying we've gone nowhere on talks and
3:49pm
the market moves higher? >> i don't know if it's because of a deal expectation as much as it's because of this morgan stanley rebalance and this movement toward the upside at end. i don't know if this is technical in nature. >> today i think it is. >> it's technical, yeah. >> before we go, brad, what would you buy? >> from a credit stand point, we're comfortable with a lot of these companies you're hearing could potentially come with a special dividend. you know, if they're still a highly rated company, it's a modest one-time uptick in leverage, we're still comfortable with that. the question really is if it's actually a change in the way a company's going to run itself from a leverage standpoint. we saw that with at&t. that was an underperformer in credit. if it's a one-time thing, i think we're comfortable. if it's a change in philosophy, that's when you'll see underperformance. >> all right, gentlemen. thank you, all. we're heading toward the close, and we are starting to lev state higher here. dow up eight points. >> they say money can't buy
3:50pm
happiness. try telling that to this guy, who appears to be one of the powerball winners. how much money does it take to make most americans happy? we'll take a look. >> look at this. tell me, did i really win that? believe it or not, we found a huge fan of the fiscal cliff. he's also, by the way, a big fan of this program. >> he watches "the closing bell." there's our video. >> but he's not in our demographic. he's not even 2 years old. we'll show you more of this coming up. he loves that. [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.
3:51pm
3:52pm
3:53pm
we want to show you where this market stands. a market up 12 points. at the close here, $3.5 billion worth of stock to buy. a big number. however, a lot of people would say that this market should be much higher given those numbers and that is indicative of the fact that many people are also trading against. in other words, there's a fair amount of sellers out there too. we have some significant stock to buy at the close here because of this morgan stanley rebalance. $3.6 billion worth of stock to buy at the close. across the board buying. we have a market higher. you would have expected it to be
3:54pm
a lot better. >> usually the imbalance would be $100 million. it's $3.6 billion. that's huge. they say money cannot buy happiness. i don't know who says that. most americans are not so sure. our wealth editor robert frank breaks down the price of happiness here in the united states. >> thanks, bill. the question of what it takes to be happy is a little subjective. it depends on your finances and your surroundings. new research gives us some averages. in the u.s., the optimal salary for happiness is around $75,000. now, once you get to that level, more income doesn't bring much added happiness. for wealth, americans say they need about $1 million in total assets to feel wealthy. millionaires, they say they need at least $5 million to feel wealthy. the more you have, the more you need. that's true around the world as well. new data shows that globally people need income of $161,000 a year to feel truly happy. people in dubai and singapore, they needed the most since they have very heavy concentrations
3:55pm
of millionaires in those countries. germans, they needed the least to feel happy. people in dubai and singapore needed more than $2.5 million to feel wealthy. these numbers are higher than the u.s. since they surveyed wealthier people. all of which shows that wealth, like happiness, is relative. i bet that lottery winner, he's rich and happy by just about any measure. back to you. >> yeah, i mean, wouldn't you be? >> well, you know, i'm like that 2-year-old. a little bit of "closing bell" every day, and i'm happy. >> me too. i'm with you, robert. that'll do it. >> we want to show you this piece of video here that is now going viral on youtube. >> look at this. >> this is a 2-year-old, a child of a viewer up in boston. they sent us this video. >> watching "closing bell." >> it occurs to me, only a 2-year-old could this happy about the fiscal cliff. >> that's charlie. we're told he's a big fan of
3:56pm
"closing bell." his father greg told us he watches us every day. we made that animation months ago to raise awareness of what the fiscal cliff meant. i know you've seen this animation a lot on our program. >> and you know i have the same response every day. >> it brings joy to that young boy. so those people who wrote in and said, hey, we hate that video, somebody likes it. >> way to go, charlie. >> look how cute charlie is. >> wait until he gets his first paycheck when he grows up with all the taxes taken out. then we'll see if he likes the fiscal cliff. >> i was just going to say that. unfortunately, one of the big upsets about this fiscal cliff and the $16 trillion debt is the taxes and what we're leaving to our kids and grand kids. i hate to pour cold water on this, bill. poor charlie. all right. we have the closing countdown next. >> after the bell, we'll hear from somebody who says entitlements didn't cause our debt problems, cuts to them shouldn't be part of the fiscal cliff solution and the negotiations continue. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. d...
3:57pm
♪ ♪ ...could end with adding a close friend. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro.
3:58pm
well, having a ton of locations doesn't hurt. and a santa to boot! [ chuckles ] right, baby. oh, sir. that is a customer. oh...sorry about that. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. fedex office. and his new boss told him two things --
3:59pm
cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. okay. about a minute left here. we're going out, the rebalancing occurring right now. you're going to see a lot of traders running around the floor here on the close. we had a lot of stock coming into the buy side. as we were hearing from some of the traders, there might be a lot of traders selling as well. >> which is why we saw a gain of almost 30 points or so a few